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Jul 4, 2024
Analysis
A tax reform agenda for tomorrow’s Chancellor
At a time when the UK’s finances look fragile, the new Chancellor would be forgiven for thinking the only purpose of changing the tax system is to raise Government funding. There is, however, another purpose: to fix those elements of the UK tax system which stand in the way of growth and those elements that […]
Jun 17, 2024
Analysis
Our take on the Reform UK manifesto
Reform UK has published its manifesto. They plan personal tax cuts which they say will cost £70bn; however our analysis shows that they’ve miscalculated, and the actual cost will be at least £88bn. Reform UK says it will fund these tax costs with £70bn of savings and additional revenue, but it provides few details. Their […]
Jun 14, 2024
Analysis
Our take on the Labour manifesto
The Labour Party has published its manifesto. Labour claims to raise £7.35bn from additional tax – but almost three-quarters of that is from increased tax compliance rather than actual new taxes. The most obvious criticism is a lack of ambition, and lack of any proposals to reform the most serious problems with our tax system. […]
Jun 13, 2024
Analysis
Our take on the Green Party manifesto
The Green Party has published its manifesto. The Green Party propose raising taxes by £115bn in 2026/27 and £172bn in 2029/30 – about 4.5% of GDP. There is very little detail presented and the proposals are impossible to assess in any depth. It’s a huge missed opportunity to advocate for radical tax proposals, and move […]
Jun 11, 2024
Analysis
Our take on the Conservative manifesto
The Conservative manifesto is here, and an accompanying costings document is here. It proposes £6bn of tax cuts in 2024/25, rising to £17bn in 2029/30. The tax cut figures appear realistic; the question is whether they are affordable. But the bigger question is why the manifesto is almost completely silent on tax reform, when so […]
Jun 10, 2024
Analysis
Our take on the Lib Dem manifesto
The Lib Dem manifesto is here, and a separate costings document is here. It claims to raise £27bn from tax increases. There is very little detail, but five items seem questionable, representing over £9bn in total: First, the Lib Dems propose to raise £1.4bn from a tax on share buybacks. But the tax is badly […]
Jun 9, 2024
Analysis
The Lib-Dem buyback tax won’t raise £1.4bn, and could raise nothing
The Lib Dems are proposing a 4% tax on share buybacks that they say would raise £1.4bn/year. It’s based on a similar proposal in America. But circumstances in the US and UK are very different. This means that the rationale for the US tax isn’t relevant to the UK and, more importantly, that the Lib […]
Jun 9, 2024
Analysis
Stamp duty is a terrible tax. We should abolish it – but there’s a price.
Stamp duty is a terrible tax. The Tories want to abolish it for most first time buyers. But the evidence shows that cutting stamp duty increases house prices, and that previous attempts to provide relief for first time buyers were ineffective. Council tax is also terrible tax – with Buckingham Palace paying less council tax […]
Jun 7, 2024
Analysis
The Green Party – very shy about a big tax increase
The Green Party says it will raise £50bn in tax from the “richest”. But their proposal will probably end up affecting half of all households. Whilst some of the very wealthiest will pay no additional tax at all, there will be people on fairly ordinary incomes facing marginal tax rates of 70%. The Greens should […]
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