Posts in "Analysis"
A tax to fund social care
Jul 27, 2026 Analysis

A modest proposal for a new tax

I have a brilliant idea for a new tax. The rules are simple: This is, obviously, insane. Except it’s real The above description is, near enough, how catastrophic adult social care costs work in England today. The deck of cards is the DHSC’s own estimate that “one in seven individuals over 65 will face care […]
First Minister John Swinney speaking at a Scottish Government podium
Jul 25, 2026 Analysis • Policy

New data suggests Scotland’s 48p tax rate may be losing money

People often talk about the Laffer curve: the idea that if you raise a tax beyond a certain point, you may in fact reduce revenues. Laffer curve effects are rather more common in newspaper headlines than in actual tax data. But that may be about to change – we’ve a new analysis showing that Scotland’s […]
New Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey
Jul 21, 2026 Analysis

John Healey should cut National Insurance, not raise the personal allowance

We have a new Chancellor – and it looks like a tax cut may be surprisingly high on his agenda. Andy Burnham has said the freezing of income tax thresholds was “the thing I heard the most on the doorsteps”, and that it was “lodged in my mind”. The personal allowance – the amount you […]
Satellite image of the UK
Jul 12, 2026 Analysis

What would a land value tax actually do?

I just wrote in the Sunday Times about the political and economic case for a land value tax. I think the principled argument for LVT is compelling, and our (likely) next Prime Minister has supported it for many years., calling it “aspirational socialism”; a 2022 LBC interview described LVT as “a very productive form of […]
a map of England showing the projected impact of a £1.5m mansion tax
Jul 7, 2026 Analysis

What if Andy Burnham lowered the mansion tax threshold to £1.5m?

The November 2025 Budget introduced a “mansion tax” – formally, the “high value council tax surcharge” – an annual charge on homes worth £2m or more. The Mail on Sunday has reported that Andy Burnham may lower the threshold to £1.5m. We’ve looked at what that might mean: who would pay, where the properties are, […]
Cash is our preferred method of payment
Jul 1, 2026 Analysis

How Andy Burnham could raise £15bn – without a tax rise.

It’s the UK’s biggest and least discussed tax problem. There’s between £30bn and £48bn missing from each year’s small business tax bills. It’s been getting worse – and nobody knows why. There’s no other issue where so much money is at stake but so little time is spent discussing it. It’s almost never mentioned by […]
redacted tax return
Jun 26, 2026 Analysis

The Palace’s fake tax transparency — and the Prince of Wales’ real tax problem

The Royal Household has, for the first time, disclosed how much voluntary “tax” the King pays: £12.9m for 2024/25, £11.7m for 2023/24, and a little over £5.4m for the six months of 2022/23 in which he was King. The documents also continue the practice of disclosing the Prince of Wales’ tax: £7.76m for 2024/25, £8.34m […]
Humble address
Jun 1, 2026 Analysis

Search the Mandelson Government documents

At 2.30pm today, the Government published a series of documents relating to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as His Majesty’s Ambassador to Washington. This is in the form of three PDF files, each with multiple messages, and about 1,500 pages in total. It’s not very easy to navigate through – we’ve created a simple search […]
The structure allegedly used by Robert Venables, KC
May 29, 2026 Analysis

The Venables prosecution

As we reported last year, Robert Venables KC is being prosecuted for tax evasion in respect of his own tax planning arrangements. This is the prosecution’s opening note. It includes details of Mr Venables’ tax arrangements, how HMRC started to investigate those arrangements in 2019, and how that became a criminal prosecution. Court blogger Mouse […]

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