Posts in "Policy"
First Minister John Swinney speaking at a Scottish Government podium
Jul 25, 2026 Analysis • Policy

New data suggests Scotland’s 48p tax rate may be losing money

People often talk about the Laffer curve: the idea that if you raise a tax beyond a certain point, you may in fact reduce revenues. Laffer curve effects are rather more common in newspaper headlines than in actual tax data. But that may be about to change – we’ve a new analysis showing that Scotland’s […]
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Jul 7, 2026 Policy

Taxing British citizens abroad: why a passport tax won’t work

If you’re a US citizen then you pay US tax wherever in the world you live. Americans can’t escape the US tax system simply by moving abroad; they have to give up their citizenship. The Liberal Democrats and others have suggested the UK should adopt something similar: a “passport tax” on British citizens living overseas. […]
photo of Andy Burnham speaking to a conference
Jul 3, 2026 Policy

37 ways Andy Burnham could raise £4.7bn

Keir Starmer announced £15 billion of additional defence spending – £4.7bn of that is currently unfunded. That leaves Andy Burnham, expected to become Prime Minister, with a problem. Where is he going to find £4.7bn? One answer would be to cut spending. However, I expect the politics are such that Mr Burnham will not do […]
CGT over time - the chart looks like someone having a heart attaack
Jun 18, 2026 Policy

The history of UK capital gains tax in five charts

This article looks at the history of UK capital gains tax, and how revenues have changed when the rate and rules changed. There’s a separate article on reforming CGT here. The chart at the top of this page shows what happens if you plot UK capital gains tax revenues as a % of GDP since […]
Who benefits from the VAT cut? Micro up to 9 employees Small £1,900m 10-49 employees £2,280m McDonald's £432m Mitchells & Butlers ee 248m aE Whitbread £238m Medium —— soo King 50-249 employees Ss Wetherspoon £1,470m Ps WS £194m Other larg 250+ employees £2,014m Compass KFC Stonegate Domino's Uber Eats fees Nando's Deliveroo fees Just Eat fees IHG hotels Greggs Marriott hotels Accor hotels @ Hilton hotels
Jun 12, 2026 Policy

The £12bn VAT cut for hospitality. Who really benefits?

The hospitality industry is lobbying for a VAT cut from 20% to 10%. The political case is simple and compelling: save pubs, restaurants, cafés and hotels; protect jobs; save high streets. The campaign says it’s self-funding and pro-growth. The reality is different. It’s a hugely expensive subsidy, likely costing more than £12bn a year. 45% […]
Telegraph headline: Chancellor’s stamp duty raid backfires as sales slump
Jun 9, 2026 Policy

Why do we still have stamp duty?

The Housing select committee has said stamp duty does economic damage and should be reformed. The Telegraph says the stamp duty increase last year “backfired”: transactions slumped, and receipts fell with them. I wish that was right, because there would then be an easy argument to reverse the increase, and even abolish the tax. But […]
A crowd of people
Jun 5, 2026 Policy

Has Britain run out of “other people” to tax?

British politics has spent a generation avoiding the same uncomfortable question: what if the government people want costs more than most voters are willing to pay? The answer, from Labour and the Conservatives alike, has been to tax “other people”. Higher earners. Banks. People with capital gains, second homes, large pensions, non-dom status, inherited wealth […]
Chart showing France has far more taxes than any other developed country; Germany has the least of any large country; the UK is in the middle
May 30, 2026 Policy

The UK has 90 different taxes. France has 348. Germany has 60. Why?

The UK has 90 different taxes – more than at any time since 1834. France, on the other hand, has 348. But Germany, which has overall levels of tax closer to France than the UK, has only 60. Why is that? And are there lessons for the UK? This is the third in a series. […]
A History of Tax
May 29, 2026 Policy

Why does Britain have more taxes than at any time since 1834?

Tax in the UK is the highest it’s been since 1945. That’s well understood – but another trend has been largely missed: the number of taxes in the UK is at its highest since the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Back then, the Government was fighting France and building the modern state. Afterwards, and over […]

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