This article looks at the history of UK capital gains tax, and how revenues have changed when the rate and rules changed. There’s a separate article on reforming CGT here.
The chart at the top of this page shows what happens if you plot UK capital gains tax revenues as a % of GDP since 1978. It looks like somebody having a heart attack.
Income tax revenues, by contrast, look much more sensible:
What on earth is going on?
Politicians fiddling with the rules. Again and again. We start to see it if we overlay the rates:
When the rate is about to go up, people accelerate their sales to benefit from the current lower rate. When the rate is about to go down, people delay their sales until the rate has dropped. I went into some of the history of CGT here.
One important caveat to bear in mind throughout: these charts plot tax receipts – the year the money actually reached HMRC. CGT is mostly paid by the 31 January after the end of the tax year, so the figures lag the underlying disposals, often by a year or more. The huge 2025-26 figure, for example, largely reflects gains made in 2024-25, including a rush to sell ahead of the October 2024 rate rise.
But that doesn’t explain all the peaks in the chart. For that we have to overlay all the constant messing around with the details of the rules:1
At this point some people can get very excited about the Laffer curve, and how the lower rates incentivised economic activity. I’m unconvinced. Even out the peaks and troughs and it’s not obvious there was any net change between 1978 and 2016. And, given the constant changes, it’s not obvious how any rational businessperson could make decisions based on the rate at the time.
Some other people get very excited about the impact on inequality. I’m unconvinced. Put CGT and income tax onto the same chart, and we see quite how unimportant CGT is, and will always be (regardless of rate):
My view: the current system is dysfunctional. The large gap between the income and capital gains rates creates an unfortunate incentive to convert income (taxed at 45%) into capital (taxed at 20%). On the other hand, there’s no allowance for inflation, so long term investors find themselves taxed on a return that isn’t real. Rewarding avoidance and punishing long-term investment is not a rational outcome.
If some idiot made me Chancellor, how would I fix this?
- I’d close or eliminate the gap between CGT and income tax rates, but bring back the “indexation allowance” that stops inflationary gains from being taxed. Nigel Lawson got this right in 1988.
- I’d make the change immediate, to prevent a sudden spike in disposals.
- And then the important bit: I’d make a big show of announcing I wasn’t going to change any of the CGT rules for the rest of the Parliament. I’d resist the urge to keep bloody changing the rules, and enable investors and entrepreneurs to plan for the long term.
I wrote in more detail about the dysfunctional history of CGT, and the approx £8bn that could be raised by equalising rates, here.
Footnotes
This is greatly simplified. The number of changes when Gordon Brown was Chancellor were particularly egregious ↩︎


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