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Jan 14, 2026
Analysis
The Scottish Budget – four thoughts on a tiny tax cut
The Scottish Budget was on 13 January 2026. The flagship policy is being widely reported as a cut in income tax for low earners, by increasing thresholds from 2026/27. The 20% basic rate will now start at £16,538 instead of £15,398. The 21% intermediate rate will now start at £29,527 instead of £27,492. This is […]
Mar 31, 2025
Analysis
Untaxing – The Laffer curve, and the napkin that changed the world
Art Laffer drew a curve on a napkin in 1974 that he said proved that tax cuts would pay for themselves. This is sometimes right, and sometimes wrong – and it’s a mistake to just assume the answer without looking at the evidence. This article, written to accompany the first episode of Untaxing, looks at […]
Dec 20, 2024
Analysis
Tax cuts and tax rises: do tax cuts pay for themselves?
It’s often claimed that tax cuts will “pay for themselves”. There’s good reason to believe that some historic tax cuts have done precisely this – what does that tell us about proposals for tax cuts today? And what does history tell us about the potential to increase revenues by raising tax on the highest earners? […]
Sep 26, 2022
Analysis
Impact on Scotland of the abolition of the 45p additional income tax rate
If the Scottish Government doesn’t follow the Tories’ abolition of the 45p additional rate, I expect its revenues from Scotland’s own 46p rate will fall by half. Here’s why. In 2017, the Scottish Government raised the additional rate from 45p to 46p. They called this the “top rate”. On paper, the differences between Scottish and […]
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